Forex Supply and Demand long term trading strategy technical analysis, 20th February 2015
20th February 2015
Long term supply and demand levels strategy top down live analysis June 2015
19th June 2015

We analyzed a bunch of few instruments in detail:

  • DOLLAR INDEX, strong bullish trend, monthly supply in control, too high in the curve, counter-trend shorts can happen, in fact already happening
  • USDHUF, strong bullish trend but compression to the left and weak weekly demand level some counter-trends can happen, moreover if tested weekly demand level is taken out
  • EURNZD, bigger picture downtrend, monthly, weekly and daily trends are down.
  • USDCAD. Bullish trend but D1 compression to the left and monthly supply level in control, bullish over-extension similar to US Index which could allow some counter-trend shorts to happen
  • USDCHF. Short bias, price hit strong supply supply where a few weeks ago the Swiss National Bank decided to change CHF interest rates and caused the bankrupt of many traders, and some brokers included

Things we always need to have in mind and take into account, we covered this in today’s webinar:

  • Defining the trend is crucial, it will determine which is your bias. We have to pay very close attention to it
  • We only use trendlines and rectangles to assess trend and draw supply and demand imbalances, no need of any fancy indicators
  • How to mechanically define a trend using supply and demand imbalances
  • A bigger timeframe normally wins over a smaller timeframe. A low odds Monthly demand zone makes lower timeframes than the Monthly low odds as well
  • A level of demand is valid IF A) it removes an opposing zone and/or B) it breaks a trendline in the timeframe you are looking at C) It has no opposing area to take out and 3:1 or more profit margin
  • How the curve is defined. Continuation patterns are not used to measure the curve if against the trend
  • Flip zones and bigger timeframe trendline confluences, don’t go against them
  • Using 3 months supply and demand imbalances help to make a decision on Monthly imbalances

 

Alfonso Moreno
Alfonso Moreno
Full time trader, expert technical analyst and founder of Set and Forget supply and demand online trading community. Traveler, photographer and adventurer.

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